Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 07:22:59

ACUS03 KWNS 160722
SWODY3
SPC AC 160721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the northern Plains, and in
parts of the mid Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys.

....Northern Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the northern High
Plains on Tuesday. Ahead of the trough, a surface low is forecast to
move southeastward into the northern Plains. A corridor of maximized
low-level moisture and instability will likely setup across eastern
North Dakota and central South Dakota by afternoon. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible along and near the instability axis. Thunderstorm
coverage may increase during the evening as the upper-level trough
approaches. Although moderate deep-layer shear is forecast, the
models suggest that instability will remain relatively weak. For
this reason, any severe threat will likely remain marginal. Strong
wind gusts and hail will likely be the primary threats.

....Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much of
north-central U.S. on Tuesday. Several models move a mid-level speed
max southeastward from the mid Missouri Valley into the mid
Mississippi Valley. An elevated convective complex, associated with
the mid-level speed max, may be ongoing at the start of the period
in the mid Missouri Valley. These storms are forecast to move
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley during the day. As
surface temperatures warm, some of the storms could become
surface-based and develop a wind-damage and hail threat. By evening,
another convective complex is forecast to develop in the mid
Mississippi Valley in association with a strengthening low-level
jet. This second convective cluster could also pose a severe threat.
A large part of this convective cluster could be elevated, favoring
a hail threat with the stronger cells. Cells along the southern edge
of the cluster that can become surface-based may also pose a threat
for isolated wind damage.

...Broyles.. 07/16/2023

$$

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