Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1571
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 04:22:13

ACUS11 KWNS 160421
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160421=20
TXZ000-160615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1571
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Southwest TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496...

Valid 160421Z - 160615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 496
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts and hail will continue
overnight.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in coverage across
the southwest TX Panhandle late this evening. Thus far, these storms
have struggled to maintain intensity and organization, though a 70=20
mph gust was noted earlier at Dalhart, and more recently a 65 mph
gust was noted near Vega, TX in association with a storm that may
also have produced some hail.=20

Moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to
support the potential for organized storms overnight, though
increasing MLCINH may begin tempering the threat to some extent.
Some upscale growth remains possible, which may evolve out of some
combination of recent development in the TX Panhandle and ongoing
storms across eastern NM. Should this occur, some increase in the
coverage of the severe-wind threat will be possible. Otherwise,
occasional hail and severe gusts will continue to be a threat with
the stronger storms into the early overnight hours.

...Dean.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6G79cKmff38QEuVt87gPeLpbmxBEUsyiY_SraNaS_aIy5nlCp2q_y2KharFuFmdP3-t8widXi=
I1uIbGpor8iGdp6tAs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35580296 35440201 35260160 34750120 34000101 33590103
            33480112 33430177 33580254 33800292 34970295 35580296=20


=3D =3D =3D
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