Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1570
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 02:56:28

ACUS11 KWNS 160256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160256=20
NMZ000-COZ000-160500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Extreme southeast CO into northeast/east-central NM

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495...

Valid 160256Z - 160500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 495
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may continue into late evening, with a
threat of large hail and possibly a tornado. WW 495 has been
extended in time to 05 UTC (11 PM MDT).

DISCUSSION...At 0250 UTC, isolated supercells are ongoing from
southeast CO into northeast/east-central NM. While MLCINH is
beginning to increase across the region with the onset of nocturnal
cooling, it will not become prohibitive for maintenance of
surface-based storms until later tonight, and a couple supercells
may persist into late evening as they continue to move
south-southeastward.=20

Large hail will likely remain the primary hazard in the short term,
but a tornado was recently reported with the supercell now in
Harding County, and a modest increase in low-level shear/SRH with
time may continue to support a brief tornado threat with the more
intense supercells. With some threat likely to persist past the 03
UTC (9 PM MDT) expiration time of WW 495, the watch has been locally
extended to 05 UTC (11 PM MDT).

...Dean.. 07/16/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!66dArVi9-Ihw1wIdGQgfawyVBkD-ENoxvzF-sa_5Gfxy-lLZNEOJC8z8XwpdyB59N0z8896VQ=
BHhXTUnZBMWqcncU4s$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37260441 37260323 36340322 35690321 35250323 34520333
            33750354 34020501 34900515 37260441=20


=3D =3D =3D
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