Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 01:55:40

AWUS01 KWNH 160155
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-160733-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0742
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Interior Northern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160133Z - 160733Z

Summary...Thunderstorms will continue develop across the interior
Northeast overnight ahead of a mid-level trough axis over the
upper Ohio River Valley. Isolated flash flooding is possible
through 07Z with additional risks then into Sunday morning.

Discussion...Water vapor satellite depicts the upper trough axis
moving into western PA with an MCV with regenerating thunderstorms
over south-central PA and recent activity over northeast PA is
sending out an outflow boundary. These features should aid further
thunderstorm development overnight over northern PA and Upstate NY
and possibly northern NJ.

The environment over interior sections of the Northeast will
continue to get more conducive to flash flooding overnight with
low level southerly flow advecting tropical moisture with
instability persisting around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE.=20

Recent HRRRs favor areas over western/west-central NY and northern
PA into the overnight. The most sensitive FFG areas are over the
Catskills to northern NJ, generally east of areas currently
progged. However, the outflow from northeast PA may trigger
activity farther east, so these sensitive areas are included.

Further flash flood risk increases late tonight as the upper
trough axis approaches, so future MPDs are anticipated.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8t5NF1mXSOCY8WE6wxWQ5mZqpIfAIJY4OJSqufmYXebHDbfxTiWj0sAtzyBkkqbP6Qud=
BdNUkO3gKf_I6wYnVJH7ZEQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43777520 43387438 42887393 41677400 40937441=20
            40647561 41037841 41297938 42207924 42957824=20
            43297767 43767686=20

=3D =3D =3D
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