Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 01:04:28

ACUS01 KWNS 160104
SWODY1
SPC AC 160102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue across the High Plains
of eastern New Mexico into the Texas South Plains this evening,
where isolated very large hail and significant damaging wind gusts
will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms may also be noted
from the central Appalachians to the mid-Atlantic and northeast
states.

....Southern High Plains...
Made a slight expansion east within the Slight Risk based on current
convective trends, but otherwise no significant changes were
necessary. The 00Z AMA RAOB shows an environment which should
continue to support supercells well into the overnight period. Hail
(potentially 2+ inch) will remain the primary threat this evening
with the wind threat increasing tonight as storms grow upscale in
the South Plains and eventually weaken early Sunday morning.

....Arklamiss...
A cluster of storms continues southeast across the Arklamiss with
2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of it. Inhibition is starting to increase
across the region, but isolated damaging wind gusts remain possible
for the next few hours. Therefore, a marginal risk has been added
ahead of this activity.

....Central Appalachians to the Northeast...
A very moist low-level airmass (mid 70s dewpoints from western NC to
southeast NY) will maintain some severe weather threat through the
evening and into the overnight period. This potential threat may
spread into Maryland to southeast New York between 08Z and 12Z from
as forcing from the mid-level shortwave trough currently over OH/KY
moves into the area.

...Bentley.. 07/16/2023

$$

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