Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 16 2023 00:44:38

AWUS01 KWNH 160044
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-160640-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0741
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
844 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Southern High Plains and Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 160042Z - 160640Z

Summary...Supercells in the lee of the Sangre de Christos this
evening will continue shifting southeast tonight bringing a
localized flash flood threat through eastern New Mexico and the
Texas Panhandle.

Discussion...Several supercells over southeast CO and northeast NM
will continue moving southeast with upstream propagation resulting
in a more southerly movement at times tonight. Ample Gulf-sourced
moisture streams in on increasing southeast low level flow with
strong northwesterly upper level flow keeping enough shear for the
cells to survive. The track of these cells will be over some areas
that had heavy rain over the past couple days such as near the
western OK/TX Panhandle border.

Rain rates will generally be 1.5"/hr after accounting for hail,
but that is enough to cause flash flooding portions of this area
since 3hr FFG is generally around 2" and there is an expectation
for further cell merging and upwind propagation. Flash flooding is
considered possible tonight.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7DYRr2RxnXA6evdhAGD1l_nrvf6lP9ERnch1VtU3h3urJ2obt52W4TYPEWMRnHRs6YN3=
0xRpL-2MO1xhXKFR67h3Ud8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37360338 37010265 35890180 34880141 33910132=20
            33720274 33730356 34050462 35460489 36840470=20
            37350419=20

=3D =3D =3D
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