Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 23:06:40

AWUS01 KWNH 152306
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-160400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0740
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
706 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Central and Southern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152304Z - 160400Z

Summary...Scattered heavy thunderstorms spread northeast from
central Virginia and across the Baltimore/Washington metro this
evening. There is a risk for scattered instances of flash flooding
from west-central North Carolina through south-central PA this
evening.=20

Discussion...Regional radar depicts a weak MCV approaching western
MD from earlier activity over the upper OH River Valley, scattered
heavy thunderstorms over central VA down into west-central NC, and
an outflow boundary lifting northwest from southeast VA. This is
all ahead of a shortwave trough axis on the west side of the
central Appalachians that will lift northeast this evening. The
combination of the forcing from these mesoscale features ahead of
the PVA from the trough axis in a high moist and unstable
environment sets the stage for further development farther
northeast this evening.

Dewpoints over the central Mid-Atlantic are in the mid to upper
70s with PW over the Chesapeake Bay 2+" and instability is robust
with MLCAPE east of I-95 around 2500 J/kg. SWly deep layer mean
flow of 25kt will keep activity shifting northeast while SEly low
level/sfc flow will continue to provide moisture and instability.

The western side of the flash flood risk area is defined by the
stratiform rain area currently over the crest of the central
Appalachians which should continue to form the western boundary in
PA. FFG is generally high over the central Mid-Atlantic outside of
the sensitive urban areas (particularly DC and Baltimore), though
there some areas that recently receive heavy rain such as the NW
DC suburbs where the flash flood risk could be locally enhanced.

Further flash flood risk increases late tonight ahead of the upper
trough axis, so future MPDs are anticipated.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_MPkERNLsGPrSYo22GnY2_wWv-OwXq88D1JhJ0EruyW-LsmU78k5lL2jfJfWEIPXQ7uO=
ZLPdpFjzX1iGSKV39UajSmc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...GSP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RAH...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41007807 40947616 40287578 39267627 38437659=20
            37897680 37497746 36657857 35837982 36208145=20
            37688001 39047902 40117889=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.