Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1567
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 22:38:55

ACUS11 KWNS 152238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152238=20
COZ000-160015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1567
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeast CO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152238Z - 160015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail may persist into early
evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong thunderstorms have developed across northern
portions of the Colorado Front Range over the last 1-2 hours, within
a low-level easterly flow regime. Modest midlevel west-northwesterly
flow is supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, and some at least
transient supercell structures will remain possible into early
evening. With moderate buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates, and
generally discrete storm mode, large hail will likely be the primary
threat with these storms.=20

The stabilizing influence of outflow from earlier convection, which
is currently nearing the south side of Denver, may provide a
southern bound of any notable severe threat. With storm coverage
expected to remain isolated within a weakly forced regime, watch
issuance is unlikely.

...Dean/Smith.. 07/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7IYDLpc0EOsoLJLFf6RCCUi-A1f9eChfK1-tyV9Nzq37Kd8X8mEXSynm0oUBSeExc-xw1Js7J=
RTFzuGRJsNUpVI6u0M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...

LAT...LON   40890529 40980518 40990379 40940339 40520324 40140347
            39790402 39810474 39650528 39780542 39990551 40270555
            40520556 40890529=20


=3D =3D =3D
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