Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 21:29:36

AWUS01 KWNH 152129
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0739
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
528 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Greater NYC Metro

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 152127Z - 160030Z

Summary...Expanding threat for heavy thunderstorms to spread
northeast over the NYC metro through this evening. Activity may
remain oriented southwest to northeast with backbuilding and cell
mergers leading to 2 to 3" hourly rainfall. Flash flooding is
likely.

Discussion...A highly efficient band of thunderstorms oriented SW
to NE over north-central NJ are expanding while continuing to
backbuild. Current activity north of Trenton has produced 2.5" to
3" in the past hour per KDIX with outflow on radar indicating this
activity should spread. The NYC metro is just downstream of this
activity and indications are that heavy rain will overspread the
NYC metro into this evening.

SWly deep layer mean flow should allow expansion farther east
while SEly low level/sfc flow will continue providing ample
moisture (PW around 1.8") and instability (MLCAPE around 2000
J/kg) to the Tri-State (NJ/NY/CT) area. Other areas of concern
that may see heavy rain expand over this evening are northern NJ
which received heavy rain yesterday and the lower Hudson Valley
which has been hit several times with heavy rain over the past
week.

This activity is still well in advance of an upper trough axis
that approaches the northern Mid-Atlantic late tonight which
brings a more widespread risk for heavy/excessive rain into Sunday.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-dfNcL4LmuLidRzIna4tzmjDuRhagPJxBbJL-X1TcxJnHnsR1zaxEErVMzDgld1SF3dA=
90R07vCr7UQJhAx_QfBDcPM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41717404 41617315 41227295 40767325 40187414=20
            40187513 41057499 41497464=20

=3D =3D =3D
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