Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 20:44:34

AWUS01 KWNH 152044
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0738
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
444 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...South Carolina into central North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152042Z - 160100Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms with 2-3"/hr rainfall rates continue
into this evening over the Midlands of South Carolina and
northeast into central North Carolina. Upstream development and
training of efficient storms raises a flash flood threat through
00Z.

Discussion...Recent radar and satellite imagery highlights rapidly
developing and backbuilding activity over central SC east of a
lee-side trough with isolated heavy activity across the outlook
area, This includes areas of eastern SC hit hard by heavy rainfall
yesterday. Recent estimates from KCAE indicate hourly rainfall of
2-3" south of Columbia where backbuilding has caused repeating
development and slow to no storm motion.=20

As suggested by the intense rates, the environment is very
conducive for efficient warm rain production. PW approaches 2.5"
over central SC and is 2.2" or higher across the outlook area with
MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. Nearly unidirectional low/mid-level SWly
flow has allowed the backbuilding with a general northeast motion.

Into the evening, activity is expected to develop off outflow
boundaries with localized maxima of 3-4". Flash flooding is
considered possible given the generally higher FFG (around 3"/3hr)
though urban areas (such as Columbia) and areas hit by heavy rain
yesterday are more sensitive.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_JpLNmNp3Q7btV_n_4pVplrM1dD07BhggIhi1Ovbenh1cODe8tbNgyDVVKEgACQHwk_2=
4nb0L2rbLAwsBubJQSuUAjg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35858066 35837906 35637782 34857828 34447854=20
            33797921 32448074 32378128 33118209 34818180=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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