Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1566
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 20:14:56

ACUS11 KWNS 152014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152014=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-152215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1566
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeastern TX...southeastern OK...and
southwestern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152014Z - 152215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are
possible through the afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
developing/spreading slowly southward along a weak baroclinic
zone/differential heating boundary draped across the ArkLaTex.
Within the pre-convective environment, strong surface heating amid
very rich boundary-layer moisture (upper 70s to lower 80s dewpoints)
is contributing to a strongly unstable air mass (3500+ J/kg MLCAPE).
As the inflow for these thunderstorms continues to diurnally
destabilize this afternoon, updrafts may increase in intensity on a
localized basis. While deep-layer flow/shear is generally weak
(especially with southward extent), marginally severe hail and/or
locally damaging gusts may accompany the stronger pulsating storms
through the afternoon -- especially if any localized clusters
develop.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-QCHYuVxlc92nLC3KTb1agGVmloiiNvoW7344zuWsWKpW6yIb95jOufdTEKkY1y65d1IGhVp9=
luE-LB_-XVUFzCBEZs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   33319615 33039612 32939595 32869522 32989431 33099339
            33249246 33649213 33999208 34279222 34489240 34689264
            34749301 34649359 34459422 34349454 34079524 33819581
            33609602 33319615=20


=3D =3D =3D
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