Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1565 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 19:51:23 ACUS11 KWNS 151951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 151950=20 NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-152215- Mesoscale Discussion 1565 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Areas affected...Portions of far northwestern NC...southwestern into central/northern VA...the eastern WV Panhandle...MD...DC...south- central into southeastern PA...northern DE...and NJ Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 151950Z - 152215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated threat for hail and damaging winds should gradually increase this afternoon. While watch issuance is unlikely in the short term (next 1-2 hours), trends will be closely monitored. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon along and just east of the Blue Ridge Mountains extending from far northwestern NC into southwestern and central VA. A separate area of convection is ongoing across parts of southeastern PA into northern DE and NJ. This activity is likely being aided by modest large-scale ascent preceding a shortwave trough moving eastward over the OH/TN Valleys. A very moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, is present along and east of the ongoing convection. Ample daytime heating has eroded remaining MLCIN, and moderate to locally strong instability has developed in response. Although low-level winds remain weak per recent VWPs from KFCX/KLWX, modest strengthening of mid-level southwesterlies to around 30-35 kt has been noted with the approach of the shortwave trough. Similar values of deep-layer shear should foster modest updraft organization. Multicells should be the primary convective mode. But, marginal supercell structures may also occur, posing an isolated hail and damaging wind threat. At this point, overall convective coverage should tend to remain fairly isolated. Poor mid-level lapse rates should also temper updraft intensity/acceleration to some extent. A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms over WV may also move into parts of western MD/VA over the next couple of hours with an isolated strong to damaging wind threat. While watch issuance appears unlikely in the short term, trends will be closely monitored. ...Gleason/Bunting.. 07/15/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-1gVH5DZYM7U6OpTNrb5gIJKoMPkqYp0H4aQUN65XAH5vV5ut7EoWIEadXmjruvxr0m4NiSUF= XA7pKPxTKjRFkS6z_o$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37018157 37438010 38907932 39757903 40217668 40877532 40457434 39367529 37997764 36248092 37018157=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .