Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1564
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 19:30:23

ACUS11 KWNS 151930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151930=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-COZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1564
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southeast/south-central CO...northeastern
NM...and far western TX Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 151930Z - 152130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of producing very large hail and
severe gusts are expected this afternoon/evening. A watch will
likely be needed for parts of the area in the next 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating and related orographic ascent are
yielding increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus and isolated
thunderstorm development along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in
southern CO into northern NM this afternoon. Continued mesoscale
ascent amid eroding inhibition should support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain during the next
couple of hours. A belt of strong west-northwesterly midlevel flow
will allow this activity to spread east-southeastward off the higher
terrain into a moist/destabilizing air mass (lower/middle 60s
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates). The moderate/strong
surface-based instability coupled with a long/generally straight
hodograph (40-55 kt of effective shear) will favor
discrete/semi-discrete splitting supercells capable of producing
very large hail (especially with early organization) and severe
gusts. With time, cell-mergers could favor localized upscale growth
with southeastward extent, with increasing severe-wind potential.

A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area in the next 2
hours, and an additional watch could eventually be needed downstream
as the severe-risk continues spreading into the western TX
Panhandle/South Plains this evening.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4ZrGx4GmsRvhCI3iJxiDPd8jIbudWm1_bxtX8xq_XFUOGHl4Bp8Yyj8kAvh2VaLTHCwqEtSNs=
Nvbsq6fMfLbDaN1U3c$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36040509 36660512 37280511 37620506 37760492 37870472
            37860440 37810414 37540359 37160322 36790299 36270284
            35710277 35180284 34870299 34680332 34640388 34730440
            35010473 35580498 36040509=20


=3D =3D =3D
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