Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1563
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 19:18:23

ACUS11 KWNS 151918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151917=20
COZ000-152145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central CO along the I-25 corridor

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 151917Z - 152145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and locally severe gusts
are possible through the afternoon. The severe threat is expected to
remain too isolated for a watch here.

DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer cumulus continues to deepen/expand along
the higher terrain and foothills in central CO this afternoon, where
recent convective development is noted. Continued heating and
related terrain circulations will support isolated thunderstorms
through the afternoon, though coverage and/or sustenance of this
activity may be limited owing to weak large-scale ascent and
lingering inhibition in the lee of the higher terrain. Nevertheless,
a belt of enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow atop weak
low-level southeasterlies is yielding an elongating/straight
hodograph supportive of organized storm structures. Isolated
instances of large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible
with any longer-lived updrafts.=20

The isolated nature of the threat and limited confidence in storm
longevity precludes a watch issuance here, though the severe threat
will gradually increase over areas farther south through the
afternoon.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-WzB1a5oag2JlcX8U8ndRTgGpva6zqaAUhxk4qtVYxQjK6mL8TfqHHWClPHDuPA945f0J_2Mo=
-3KmxS7bI-PWHUrqZc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38730426 38360425 38150431 37980442 37920461 37960483
            37960504 38000532 38130543 38400549 38790550 39210551
            39500551 39610543 39620526 39550480 39490456 39230439
            38730426=20


=3D =3D =3D
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