Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 18:12:03 AWUS01 KWNH 151811 FFGMPD PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-160010- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0737 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 210 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley and Central Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 151810Z - 160010Z SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible this afternoon from broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR/WV imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough advancing through the OH Valley and portions of the Mid-South which has been driving broken coverage of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. This energy will be advancing downstream this afternoon through areas of eastern KY, WV, southern and eastern OH, and gradually western PA and will be encountering a moderately unstable and moist environment that will be conducive for some additional expansion of convective activity and an increase in rainfall rate potential. Areas of southwest VA and northeast TN will also likely see an increase in areas of showers and thunderstorms given stronger solar insolation and orographic forcing/ascent. Radar trends over the last hour show the convection becoming a bit more concentrated across areas of northeast KY and far southern OH which is in closer proximity to somewhat stronger boundary layer moisture convergence and also favorable upper-jet support ahead of the shortwave trough helping to favor stronger deep layer ascent/forcing. This more concentrated axis of rainfall will continue to advance gradually off to the northeast over the next few hours and with some potential for localized cell-training that will drive heavier rainfall potential. Rainfall rates are expected to reach as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells this afternoon, with some localized storm total amounts of 3 to 5 inches possible where any cell-training occurs. The latest HREF guidance tends to support these heavier totals occurring over northern OH, but the latest radar trends and pooling of boundary layer instability/forcing would tend to suggest areas closer to the OH River from far northeast KY through southeast OH and into western WV will see these heavier totals. Given the expected areas of heavy rainfall this afternoon, some isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7NRDb_juKfIQpY-_sLCObWVChw_IDAn50igsE_rybPSGrFohLSBetMjYZN_C1bbyjoUj= sIBNFsHej0rowbeNvWER950$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...JKL...LMK...MRX...PBZ...RLX... RNK... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 41838110 41728019 41167954 39907945 38218010=20 36728144 36098298 36588441 37708500 38738490=20 40458448 41518361 41478258 41658188=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .