Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 17:35:24 ACUS02 KWNS 151735 SWODY2 SPC AC 151734 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe hail and wind is possible from the central Plains eastward into Illinois. Isolated strong storms will be possible over the Northeast. ....Synopsis... An unseasonably strong upper cyclone will remain over much of Ontario and into the Great Lakes, with strong northwest flow over much of the area extending southwestward into the central Plains. Cool temperatures aloft will also accompany this regime, with 500 mb temperatures to -10 C as far south as I-70. A leading meridional upper wave will eject northeastward across New England during the day, enhancing shear over New England. However, temperatures aloft will be relatively warm. Counteracting this warmth aloft will be robust low-level moisture with dewpoints firmly in the 70s F. Deep-layer southerly winds will maintain lift through warm advection processes, while enhancing low-level shear ahead of an elongated surface trough extending southward into VA/NC. To the west, a more prominent wave will rotate southeastward across the upper MS valley and into parts of IL, IN and Lower MI, with a notable increase in lift/differential divergence. Moisture ahead of the wind shift from KS into IA will not be as robust as previous days, but steep lapse rates will counteract this negative factor and likely result in scattered severe hail or wind. ....Central Plains eastward into IL... Early day storms are forecast over parts of southeast NE, and outflows will likely accompany this activity. Strong heating will combine with the cool air aloft ahead of this activity to either reinvigorate these storms or more likely produce new storms, especially extending southwestward into KS along I-70. Here, moderate instability as well as lengthy, straight hodographs will favor cells capable of hail initially, with merging outflow producing damaging gusts. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Other sporadic hail cores are possible farther east into IA/MO/IL, where shear will favor cellular mode with 40 kt deep-layer shear. ....Much of the Northeast... Areas of rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from VA northward into NY and southern New England with bands of convection possible oriented SSW to NNE. Given the long duration of storms throughout the period, chances for locally strong gusts or even a brief/weak tornado have been extended eastward into southern New England where high dewpoints along with marginal 0-1 SRH up to 100 m2/s2 may support transient areas of rotation within the more prolonged bands/zones of convection. ...Jewell.. 07/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .