Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 16:02:00

AWUS01 KWNH 151601
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0736
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1200 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Areas affected...Northwest to Central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151600Z - 152200Z

SUMMARY...A locally repeating axis of heavy showers and
thunderstorms may cause at least some localized flash flooding
concerns going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-16 IR satellite imagery shows an axis
of cooling convective tops expanding into areas of northwest MS.
The shower and thunderstorm activity has been forming around the
southern flank of a shortwave trough advancing into the Mid-South
and is situated near a fairly strong instability gradient.

Some upscale growth of this convection is expected going through
the early to mid-afternoon hours as the activity encounters
stronger diurnally enhanced instability downstream and a very
moist airmass characterized by PWs near 2 inches. There is a
modest level of shear in place as well with effective bulk of as
much as 20 to 30 kts and this coupled with the instability should
favor some broken multi-cell clusters of convection.

Given that the current activity is already fairly well-aligned
with the deeper layer mean flow, there will be some concerns for
the shower and thunderstorm activity to repeat over the same area.
Rainfall rates with the current activity have already been as high
as 2 to 2.5 inches/hour, and with the repeating cell concerns,
some localized totals heading though the afternoon hours may
approach 3 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts.

While the short-term threat is more over northwest MS, the
convection should gradually advance southeast into areas of
central MS where soil conditions are notably more sensitive and
streamflows are more elevated as a result of very heavy rainfall
earlier this past week. This will pose a threat for at least some
localized flash flooding concerns as this next round of heavier
rainfall arrives.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9yk8capR1wMmNVLejT4HNNVnG4YnJDNnKbH94VM_OCFxNTFI74sX_Yj1DSzRpyaCm5t-=
if2DtjqlGNqZE8JjofDxLpg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34139038 33648907 33098830 32528843 32478930=20
            32969057 33429105 33949092=20

=3D =3D =3D
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