Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 07:22:20

ACUS03 KWNS 150722
SWODY3
SPC AC 150721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat will be possible from Monday evening
through the overnight period in parts of the central and northern
Plains, and into the mid Missouri Valley.

....Central and Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the
northern High Plains on Monday, as northwesterly mid-level flow
remains over much of the north-central U.S. At the surface, a lee
trough is forecast to deepen across the northern High Plains.
Moisture advection will likely take place to the east of the lee
trough, with an axis of low-level moisture setting up from northeast
Kansas into western South Dakota. A capping inversion appears likely
to be in place over much of the region during the day on Monday.
During the evening, a low-level jet is forecast to rapidly
strengthen near the moist axis. This should support elevated
thunderstorm development from mid evening into the overnight period.
NAM forecast soundings at 06Z near much of the moist axis generally
have MUCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range, with moderate to strong
effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should support
an isolated large hail threat from storms that form well after dark
and persist into the overnight. The activity will likely remain
highly elevated due to a sharp temperature inversion. LCL heights
are forecast to be near 700 mb which will likely limit the wind
damage potential.

...Broyles.. 07/15/2023

$$

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