Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 05:58:48

ACUS02 KWNS 150558
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible on Sunday from parts of the central Plains into the mid
Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

....Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move through the Upper Midwest on Sunday,
as mid-level flow remains northwesterly across the north-central
states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
central Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are expected to
be mostly from the mid 50s to lower 60s F. This will contribute to
destabilization during the day across much of southeast Nebraska and
Kansas, where a pocket of moderate instability may develop. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to form near and to the south of the
front. A cluster or two could persist from late afternoon into the
evening.

NAM forecast soundings along the instability axis in south-central
Nebraska at 00Z/Monday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6
km shear around 45 knots. Storms that can develop along and near the
front could have a severe threat, with a potential for hail and
strong gusty winds. However, there are a few limiting factors that
could marginalize any severe threat. First, a cap is forecast during
the afternoon near 850 mb across parts of the warm sector. Second,
700-500 mb lapse rates are only forecast to be in the 6 to 6.5 C/km
range in most areas. Third, a pocket of dry air at low-levels is
forecast to the south of the front. For these reasons, the
probability for a more substantial severe threat appears low, and
will not introduce a slight risk at this time.

....Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
northeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward through the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be present with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. As destabilization occurs during the day
across this moist airmass, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form and move east-northeastward across the region. Although
moderate deep-layer shear is forecast within this airmass,
instability is expected to remain weak in most areas. Thunderstorms
that can develop in areas that heat up the most could have a
marginal wind-damage threat with hail also possible.

...Broyles.. 07/15/2023

$$

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