Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1561
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 02:59:17

ACUS11 KWNS 150259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150258=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-150430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas into Missouri Bootheel

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150258Z - 150430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A well-organized bowing segment is ongoing in
north-central Arkansas. Wind damage will be possible in the short
term with this activity. A downstream severe thunderstorm watch may
be considered if organization/intensity trends hold.

DISCUSSION...Radar presentation and velocity data from KSGF and KLZK
suggest that a well-organized bowing segment is ongoing in
north-central Arkansas. Cooling downstream has been relatively
modest this evening given how moist the airmass is. Even so,
objective mesoanalysis shows a reduction in MLCAPE to around 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring
ahead of the bow and lends additional uncertainty with regard to the
quality of thermodynamic environment. Even so, the organization of
the bow would suggest a threat of wind damage could persist into the
later evening. Should convective trends hold, a downstream severe
thunderstorm watch may be considered for parts of northeast Arkansas
and perhaps the Missouri Bootheel. Uncertainty increases farther
east into western Tennessee.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 07/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4wcUEieSD6SlAqscHlhFyID0vnlTB8nXgQt8IHyYBt2Ete7i0UZvZW8vu8ByR1k6zGgx5Ug7h=
MM8AI5zaEdWa1y3H6w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34719070 34579141 34609182 34699213 34879225 34969225
            35459197 36059142 36279114 36429075 36419024 36298983
            36198964 35668971 35238997 34719070=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.