Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 02:27:22

AWUS01 KWNH 150227
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-150820-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0733
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1025 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of western NC...north-central SC...far
East TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150220Z - 150820Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates may occasionally flare to
1-3"/hr. Additional isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible.

Discussion...Widely scattered convection continues to percolate
across portions of the Carolinas late this evening, in the
vicinity of NW-SE oriented surface troughs (WPC analysis) and
associated deep layer moisture flux convergence maxima (EMC RAP
analysis). The mesoscale environment is otherwise characterized by
ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, precipitable water values of 1.9-2.3
inches (near or above the 90th percentile, per GSO/CHS sounding
climatology), and effective bulk shear of 20-30 kts. Despite
increasing convective inhibition overnight, this parameter space
may continue to support isolated/localized instances of flash
flooding, primarily in association with fleeting updrafts and
relatively slow storm motions (5-15 kts, per 850-300 mb flow and
upwind propagation vectors).  Low-level (925 mb) flow, on the
other hand, is modestly higher at 15-20 kts, and may become
locally enhanced overnight. All-in-all, this will support
relatively short-lived, localized rainfall rates of 1-3"/hr, and
the highest confidence for the realization of these rates exist
across north-central SC into western NC (where 18z and new 00z
HREF neighborhood probabilities for 2" and 3" exceedance are as
high as 20-30% and 10-20%, respectively, for 3-hr intervals
through 06-09z). In addition, soils across far eastern TN (Bristol
area) are particularly sensitive from 3-5" of rainfall over the
past 24 hours (as indicated by FFGs as low as an inch or less).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4MqQdf_1wQlY2-PyVCsmGiIegwbZ9rqtP8_XYYwJPVe6YygTSao-WsEUFBMsaRtYbMNj=
4ULueQQRjDK0ZW504r_jho8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36818261 36468076 36008001 35287998 34557957=20
            33837940 33317991 33348078 33668148 34308234=20
            34988274=20

=3D =3D =3D
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