Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 02:01:22

AWUS01 KWNH 150201
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0732
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Arkansas and Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150159Z - 150700Z

Summary...Axis of heavy rain developing ahead MCS bow apex in
Arkansas leading to a scattered flash flooding risk overnight
through much of Arkansas into the Mississippi Delta.

Discussion...The main MCS to emerge out of KS this afternoon is
going strong as it pushes into northwest AR. An axis of precip has
also developed ahead of the apex of the bow to this MCS which
enhances the flash flood risk to north-central AR to over and just
south of Memphis overnight. Abundant instability is present ahead
of the MCS which will allow further growth as the cold pool
advances southeast rounding the eastern end of the ridge centered
over the Desert SW extending through TX. Persistent low level SWly
flow will maintain copious moisture pooled over central AR where
PWs are around 2.2" (2.22" at 00Z KLZK raob, at moving max average
from SPC PW climo) which should allow hourly rainfall to exceed
3", particularly where activity can repeat ahead of the MCS.=20

Areas of far western AR are more sensitive due to heavy activity
last night. Otherwise, terrain in central/northern AR will
increase runoff though FFGs are generally around 2.5"/3hr.=20
Scattered instances of flash flooding are likely given the
development activity ahead of the MCS.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_vLHayhV3INbtO-UHa6xWUdHAJm5C_TwQectvJ9A0B7aOaVnANvcTiihIfO2Nr37qSnd=
kBH_a04-RHPy75URUkpBsmE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36509214 35158946 33909006 33929197 34129382=20
            34959463 35739513 36039455 36139373=20

=3D =3D =3D
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