Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 01:20:51

AWUS01 KWNH 150120
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-150530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0731
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
919 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Greater St Louis through southern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150117Z - 150530Z

Summary...Eastward moving MCV looks to set up heavy rain axis from
east-central MO through southern IL, including the St. Louis Metro
into the overnight. Scattered flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The eastern segment of a pair of MCS's to push from
KS this afternoon has tracked across north-central MO. While it is
currently in a weakening state, the MCV, which is trailing the
main line, is in position to invigorate further development along
a burgeoning scattered line of thunderstorms currently over StL
and extending ESE over southern IL. An increasing SWly LLJ this
evening reinforces high moisture along and east of the MS River
with PWs currently around 2" increasing to 2.25" by 03Z per recent
RAP runs. Increasing instability farther east, generally 3000 J/kg
MUCAPE over downstate IL this evening, should allow robust
redevelopment of these cells with the QPF axis nearly parallel to
the 20kt westerly mean layer flow allowing a training cell
concern. There is a risk for 2"+/hr rainfall with FFG generally
2.5"/3hr.

Little rain has fallen in the past week, particularly east of StL
which is why the FFG is on the high side. Scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered possible given the presence of the
MCV and developing thunderstorm axis ahead of it.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7FUfJD5qE2xg3uLS8rpUr6OhiP4w2TYH0uYb14LAKnzAfA1E_ZprFni2fWIi7B2TiWkW=
6G1UMJpGERvVyVDRuT-epsI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39529046 39028893 37888756 37578818 37568854=20
            38119066 38409147 38999181 39479178=20

=3D =3D =3D
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