Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1557
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 00:57:16

ACUS11 KWNS 150057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150056=20
ARZ000-OKZ000-150230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of east-central Oklahoma into parts of
central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150056Z - 150230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch may be needed for parts of
central Arkansas this evening as storms may maintain some intensity.
Damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe storms is moving southeast
and will enter northwest Arkansas soon. The most favorable
thermodynamic environment resides in northeastern/east-central
Oklahoma. The observed 00Z LZK sounding showed steep mid-level lapse
rates and adequate shear for storm organization. However, there is
also capping noted around 800 mb. As long as sufficient lift is
present with the cold pool, some risk for strong/damaging winds will
exist into parts of central Arkansas this evening. A watch may be
needed for parts of the area.

...Wendt/Guyer.. 07/15/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8irVFt-0eaVnnXiBIdx0T4hYz8r5u2lv4xHgzttYR4pZ2W-BxGVnKLnLVlFsLlV721CPNtl0X=
s8yd0XToRKiIoghq0M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   34909535 35799353 36259301 36309293 36399227 36269197
            35799173 35029241 34659344 34419395 34329458 34339502
            34669533 34909535=20


=3D =3D =3D
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