Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 00:54:45 ACUS01 KWNS 150054 SWODY1 SPC AC 150053 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Severe threat continues with convection from portions of the Midwest into the southern Plains. Damaging winds are the primary concern. ....01z Update... Organized convection has developed, in a scattered fashion, from southern WI/northern IL, arcing southwest across MO into northern OK. More isolated activity is now evolving across northeast NM/TX Panhandle. Most of this convection has formed along/ahead of a pronounced cold front that is expected to advance southeast during the overnight hours. The primary concern this evening is across the southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau. Well-organized MCS has evolved over southwest MO, extending into northern OK. This complex of storms is propagating southeast along the northern/eastern plume of seasonally buoyant air characterized by MUCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg. 00z soundings from OUN/SGF both exhibit steep lapse rates with surface-6km shear around 30kt - more than adequate for maintaining the MCS. Southwesterly 850mb flow should encourage this activity to continue propagating southeast and the primary risk is damaging winds. Thunderstorms should remain a bit more isolated across the southern High Plains, but new updrafts are strengthening across the TX Panhandle along the wind shift, in addition to the slow-moving supercell over northeast NM. Latest thinking is convection will continue to develop along the cold front as it advances south across the southern Plains, especially across OK. Across the Midwest...MCS has developed over southern WI into northwest IL and this complex should continue to propagate east toward southern Lake MI later this evening. Strongest convection should hold south of WI where stronger instability is currently observed. 00z sounding from ILX exhibits deep westerly flow with adequate flow at mid levels for this activity spreading toward northern IN. Additionally, 850mb flow is forecast to strengthen a bit across central IL into northwest IN. This should encourage some organization as it advances downstream. ...Darrow.. 07/15/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .