Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jul 15 2023 00:52:51

AWUS01 KWNH 150052
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-150500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0730
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
851 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic, Hudson Valley into Western
New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150047Z - 150500Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing along an axis over eastern PA
into northern NJ should continue building east into northern
sections of NYC this evening. Further development is expected up
the Hudson Valley into western New England. Repeating cells will
continue to provide rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hr with scattered
instances of flash flooding into the overnight.

Discussion...Subtropical moisture is in place east along the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast to southern New England east of a
stationary front that is placed well inland. An instability axis
of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE extends from the northern Mid-Atlantic Coast
north through Vermont. Thunderstorms developing on the eastern end
of zonal section of this front over PA continue to spread east
from eastern PA over northern NJ. These pose an imminent threat to
northern sections of NYC with 2"/hr rain rates. Two corridors of
development farther north persist and given the instability, they
should continue spreading east-northeast through midnight given
the southwesterly deep layer mean flow around 25kt.

Given the degree of the recent rainfall, urban coverage, scattered
instances of flash flooding are considered likely into the
overnight.

A refocus of activity later tonight is currently progged to be
more over southern New England per latest CAMs, so stay tuned for
further MPDs.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9UIoR5SY-quQXJbTmJiRJw3BCr6HPs3pxfx_wD1xCIFPO-Rg2KT3ieT-upbU_a-eS2jB=
XNP5ZbjRsOJ7buY6elMDDLg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...CTP...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44787224 44017202 42267241 42057245 41267304=20
            40877299 40517368 40417425 40417517 40737593=20
            41077526 42137468 43257399 44267341=20

=3D =3D =3D
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