Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1555
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 23:11:43

ACUS11 KWNS 142311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142311=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-150045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Eastern IA into northwest IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492...

Valid 142311Z - 150045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 492
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and locally damaging gusts will
continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of thunderstorms that developed across
eastern IA this afternoon is now approaching northwest IL. These
storms developed along a weak surface trough, with some upper
support being provided by a midlevel shortwave trough now moving
across parts of MN. With favorable downstream low-level moisture and
instability, storms will likely persist for much of the evening as
they spread farther into northwest IL.=20

Despite the favorable thermodynamic environment, storms have been
relatively disorganized thus far. While modest midlevel westerlies
are supporting marginally favorable deep-layer shear, low-level flow
is quite weak across the region, and storms have quickly become
outflow dominant thus far. Some outflow consolidation remains
possible this evening, which could result in an uptick in
damaging-wind potential. Sporadic hail will also be possible with
the strongest storms, though the threat may tend to remain rather
isolated.

...Dean.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_ZYXVn1Xmcd4OEtGob3OnbFe5O15xBqhX2yb1A-LtGP4ZftTb3i7GskpoWYWFlzUNwOa-y8u_=
gYoHoQ1cPBsNC6FSMY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   40779183 41099118 41629094 42069085 42379039 42428946
            42048921 41328924 40558952 40289007 40289072 40359123
            40639172 40779183=20


=3D =3D =3D
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