Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1553
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 22:01:15

ACUS11 KWNS 142201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142200=20
MOZ000-142330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1553
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491...493...

Valid 142200Z - 142330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491, 493
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts will likely extend into
central/east-central Missouri. There is some uncertainty how far
east the organized bowing segment will progress.

DISCUSSION...Long radar/satellite loops indicate outflow from prior
convection has reached near the I-70 corridor in Missouri. A cluster
of convection has developed north-northwest of St. Louis in a weakly
sheared environment. Outflow has quickly spread away from this
cluster. The well-organized bowing structure (with a history of
measured severe gusts and wind damage) now in the eastern Kansas
City suburbs should continue to the east likely just south of the
primary outflow boundary where the airmass has at least slowly tried
to recover this afternoon. The overall eastern extent of the severe
threat with the bowing segment is somewhat in doubt given the
outflow from the weak convection that may spread southward ahead of
it. Shear should at least modestly increase with time given the
approach of an upstream shortwave trough. The thermodynamic
environment and storm-scale organization trends will likely be the
modulators of the severe threat duration.

...Wendt.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8CdUm4lV3RLdLqRzuIzOu5PUmkyOVUCs48r83-P2QBDNZttL2MkKXbz3biJqp3FrYyGPGJahk=
O-gQfP9XLsyt1xmVNA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   38409427 38549452 38749447 39069428 39269406 39219372
            39189320 39059239 38889137 38529092 38279104 38159163
            38179290 38259388 38409427=20


=3D =3D =3D
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