Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 21:16:18

AWUS01 KWNH 142116
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0729
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into Missouri, Oklahoma, and
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142108Z - 150300Z

Summary...The bookends and junctions of bowing thunderstorm
complexes over Kansas will continue to be the main threat areas
for flash flooding through this evening as activity shifts
southeast over KS into MO and OK. A few areas that received
particularly heavy rain the past two days are in the path and
would enhance the risk for flash flooding there.

Discussion...Multiple bowing segments are seen in regional NEXRAD
at 21Z extending SW from KC to south-central KS. This activity is
cold pool dominant and progressive, but the junctions between the
segments as well as the bookends will continue to be the areas of
greatest flash flooding concerns into this evening.

The environment is conducive for heavy rain with PW of 1.8", CAPE
of 1500-2500 J/kg, and upper diffluence from the right entrance
region of a jet streak over IA. Deep layer mean flow is westerly
with upwind propagation vectors to the southeast which has been
the general storm motion.

Much of the area in KS ahead of the system is in drought, but
there are some areas near and into Northeast OK that received 2-4"
this morning and in southeast KS that received several inches
yesterday morning. These more sensitive areas are also targets for
flash flooding, particularly if any repetition can occur there.
Given that much of this area has such high FFG (generally over
2.5"/3hr), further flash flooding is considered possible.

This organized activity should continue moving southeast overnight
and into more sensitive areas, so further MPDs are likely
necessary.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5dH42A4G8cFOlGpEC2VdODXJLbqzQNLjOiRB6slZiM0TEoY_WK2VDJaRSexxfiD__Rji=
d4XkiAw7SfEpcGCXH1sjWNI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39369459 39229378 38679219 36759224 36239346=20
            35949519 37089819 37589854 37869835 37979747=20
            38329705 38579658 38539605 38599548 38859496=20
            39229472=20

=3D =3D =3D
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