Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1550
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 20:11:13

ACUS11 KWNS 142011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142010=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-142245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1550
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 142010Z - 142245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail and locally
damaging gusts are possible across parts of southern/central MN into
northwestern WI into early evening. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorms are tracking
eastward across parts of southwestern/south-central MN this
afternoon -- generally focused along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface
trough. Ahead of this activity, differential heating along the
northern edge of widespread cloud coverage should provide a
favorable corridor across parts of southern/central MN into
northwestern WI for the maintenance of this activity into the early
evening time frame. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the
area and an elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective
shear) could support marginal supercell structures and loosely
organized clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail and
locally damaging winds. Overall, the severe threat is expected to
remain too marginal/isolated for a watch.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4uMODb6_F1dWI5HLNNFHgg-FKtMaPtIJQb_9qqnb92Ptxt7gFaflt7f9Dp8BKpJ4GlqX_n2Ku=
PP2EkYDNdEA9rSqpgM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   44169582 44299604 44549613 44929620 45289606 45479573
            45599498 45689410 45839342 46059294 46399241 46389176
            46209112 45809081 45279079 44839101 44579145 44409189
            44259255 44209399 44159535 44169582=20


=3D =3D =3D
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