Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 19:52:44 ACUS01 KWNS 141952 SWODY1 SPC AC 141951 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, including some over 75 mph and large hail are forecast today over portions of the central and southern Plains. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, the Great Lakes, and the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ....KS/MO/OK... A substantial MCS is currently moving southeastward across central KS with additional activity extending east along I-70 into northeast KS. The air mass ahead of these storms remains strongly unstable with a warming air mass and 70s F dewpoints. Earlier, GBD measured a wind gust of 52 kt near the tail end of the MCS, with 63 kt measured at TOP and various KS mesonet locations over 60 mph. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1547. ....MN into WI... Heating near a surface trough with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability may favor isolated hail or gusty winds, and a Marginal Risk has been added to this region, generally north of the existing cirrus canopy where heating is strongest. ...Jewell.. 07/14/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023/ ....Central and southern Plains... An ongoing cluster of severe storms was located over southwest/south-central NE at 16z, with a history of large hail and, more recently, severe gusts. This small complex is within a zone of warm advection in the 850 to 700-mb layer, and will likely continue moving southeastward along an instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Aided by steep lapse rates in the midlevels and strong-locally extreme MLCAPE across central KS/central and eastern OK this afternoon, an expected evolution into a fast-moving MCS with significant severe wind gust potential is anticipated. The Enhanced Risk was expanded west over KS based on morning CAM guidance, and also adjusted slightly southward over OK. The Slight and Marginal Risk areas were also expanded south as well-organized and fast-moving MCSs often persist longer than reflected in some operational guidance. Given the CAPE-shear parameter space, supercell potential will also exist with this MCS and an attendant risk for large hail. Farther west, isolated supercell development appears possible across southeast WY/northeast CO late today, along the southern fringe of stronger WNW mid-level flow. Large hail will be possible. ....MO/IA/IL/WI... A cold front will move into parts of southern IA, northern MO, northwest IL, and southern WI by afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the front. Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds and ample CAPE will promote a few organized clusters capable of hail and damaging wind gusts for a few hours through this evening. ....East Coast from NC to New England... Diurnal heating of a moist air mass (dew points averaging upper 60s-mid 70s) will lead to moderate CAPE across a rather large area this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, contributing to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms from NC across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Winds aloft will be relatively weak (25-30 knots), but the potential will exist for a few slow-moving multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .