Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 19:04:15

AWUS01 KWNH 141904
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-142330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0728
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Southern NC into Eastern SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141902Z - 142330Z

Summary...Heavy thunderstorms will continue to develop along an
axis over southern NC this afternoon. Training of 2 to 3"/hr
rainfall rates raises a possible flash flood threat there through
the rest of the afternoon. Redevelopment of thunderstorms just to
the north of this axis over central NC poses a risk of further
heavy rain/flash flooding over areas that were deluged during the
midday.

Discussion...Recent imagery from KLTX highlights efficient
thunderstorms along an axis over southern NC with max hourly
rainfall estimates of 2 to 3".

The environment is conducive for efficient warm rain production
with PW of 2.2", CAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of
25kt, and light low level southwestern flow feeding further
moisture/instability. 2.3", and saturated vertical profiles with
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE (which is corroborated by the upstream 12z
GSO sounding). 20-25 kts of effective bulk shear will also support
modest storm organization, longevity, and dynamic ascent within
the column.

Further activity is expected to develop upstream along the axis
which is parallel to the deep layer mean flow, suggestive of
training and a flash flood risk. FFG in southern NC is rather
high, generally 3"/3hr, so flash flooding should be localized.
This is south of earlier activity, so a general southern trend
should occur and may push into the Wilmington metro as well as
areas in far northeast SC through the rest of the afternoon.

Also, despite being worked over this morning, thunderstorms have
also developed west of where the heaviest rain fell this morning.
With the westerly steering flow and replenishment from low level
southwesterly flow this area should quickly recover. There is a
risk for activity producing 1"+/hr to push east through this
afternoon and cause repeat flash flooding from areas that saw
heavy rain end only two hours ago around 17Z.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7BQex61eOkYstCIkc58ThAgMuOrXaCbKjdRhdfYK4n4saob6hVuZDU6NB8jblr_ZwSk3=
2w6fZ78MkpocIAc1LEn2RtA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35697962 35557812 34627753 34347728 33707792=20
            34087950 35058034=20

=3D =3D =3D
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