Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1544
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 17:39:43

ACUS11 KWNS 141739
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141738=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-142015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1544
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of NC and into northern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141738Z - 142015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts are possible through the afternoon.
A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating amid rich boundary-layer
moisture (lower/middle 70s surface dewpoints) is underway across
parts of NC and northern SC along/east of the southern Appalachians.
Continued destabilization should support an uptick in thunderstorm
development during the next couple of hours -- possibly aided by a
subtle midlevel impulse crossing the Appalachians. Regional VWP data
indicates around 20-25 kt of midlevel flow across the region, which
may gradually strengthen through the afternoon -- yielding around
25-35 kt of effective shear. This, combined with the increasingly
unstable air mass, should support several loosely organized clusters
capable of producing wind damage through the afternoon. The overall
severe-risk is expected to remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_st5gXsljS2ujXDss6-lFECAd8bFBTA0goh03RD0uCPefSZFgiLIjh__5fBS9Vzbmhgxv5AnZ=
2gU1vGxCEVcemBPbLQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35517753 34597766 34167811 33977861 34027931 34118068
            34318155 34618208 34898234 35278237 35708204 36338080
            36458039 36487933 36437863 36377836 36257781 35927754
            35517753=20


=3D =3D =3D
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