Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 17:25:12 ACUS02 KWNS 141725 SWODY2 SPC AC 141723 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Scattered storms, a few producing damaging gusts, are possible from the Lower Great Lakes across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys toward the southern Appalachians. Isolated hail is also possible late over the southern High Plains. ....Synopsis... A deep upper low will remain over the Manitoba/Ontario area with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft over the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. The southern periphery of the stronger flow aloft will sweep east across the OH and TN Valleys during the day, with a wave ejecting northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic overnight. Winds around 850 mb will increase out of the south late in the day and overnight ahead of the upper wave, enhancing warm/moist advection and lift. At the surface, a cold front will stretch roughly from OH into TN by late afternoon, with dewpoints near 70 F. A warm front will also lift northward overnight across PA and NY, aided by the stronger flow off the surface. A surface low will develop over OH, and will deepen a bit overnight into western NY. ....Lower Great Lakes southward into northern AL/GA/SC... A morning MCS may affects parts of southern MO, western TN and KY Saturday morning, and may provide a further focus for redevelopment during the day and during the evening across TN, northern AL and GA. Predictability is low for this scenario but ample moisture and instability will be present to support a conditional wind threat in this corridor, possibly extending into the western Carolinas overnight. During the day, areas of rain and storms will exist in association with the upper trough and cold front, moving across IN, OH, KY, with stronger activity possible during the diurnal cycle over OH and eastern KY. Locally strong gusts or marginal hail will be possible but neither CAPE nor shear will be very strong. During the evening, low-level shear will increase as the low deepens and winds just off the surface increase to over 30 kt. This will increase SRH, but at a time when low-level instability will be minimized. Still, rising dewpoints may yield SBCAPE sufficient for a few ongoing cells to acquire rotation, with either enhanced wind gust potential or a brief/weak tornado. ....Southeast CO...eastern NM...western TX Panhandle... Low-level moisture will surge northwestward during the evening and overnight from the TX Panhandle into NM and southeast CO, where a steep lapse rate environment will remain. A few elevated cells capable of large hail are forecast mainly after 03Z, moving southeastward out of CO/NM and into the TX Panhandle through Sunday morning. ...Jewell.. 07/14/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .