Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1542 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 16:25:11 ACUS11 KWNS 141625 SWOMCD SPC MCD 141624=20 MOZ000-KSZ000-141830- Mesoscale Discussion 1542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Much of KS into far western MO Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20 Valid 141624Z - 141830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, with some 75+ mph, is expected to increase this afternoon. Some threat for large hail will also exist. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be needed as thunderstorms spread southeastward from Nebraska into Kansas. DISCUSSION...A small cluster/supercell in south-central NE is beginning to show signs of upscale growth and a developing rear-inflow jet based on recent radar imagery from KUEX. Indeed, measured severe wind gusts up to 64 mph have recently been recorded with this cluster. An increasing threat for severe/damaging winds is expected as this activity spreads southeastward this afternoon across much of KS. A moderately to strongly unstable airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates are present over western/central KS, along and south of a convectively reinforced front (reference 12Z DDC sounding). The airmass across eastern KS into western MO is less unstable at the moment. But, continued robust diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass across this region will act to increase MLCAPE to around 2500-3000+ J/kg over the next few hours. KS is on the southern periphery of stronger northwesterly mid-level flow. Still, enough deep-layer shear should be present to support continued convective organization, with latest mesoanalysis estimates showing 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear across KS. In addition to the intense cluster/supercell in south-central NE, a separate area of convection has developed along the surface boundary across northeast KS. There is some potential for this activity to also grow upscale into a severe wind producing MCS and impact northeastern KS and parts of western MO. Otherwise, the primary severe wind threat should remain focused with the cluster moving southeastward out of NE and into central/eastern KS this afternoon. A large reservoir of available buoyancy, steep mid-level lapse rates, and an organized/intense bow shown in most convection-allowing guidance all suggest a threat for significant severe/damaging gusts of 75-80+ mph across this region this afternoon. Large hail will also remain a risk with any supercell that can be sustained within or on the southwest flank of the developing bow. Based on its current track, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will be needed soon for much of central/eastern KS and vicinity. ...Gleason/Bunting.. 07/14/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7fv0jZKbsBxFCM2dAmmGr4VCi0HS-iGI6z6TObULR7lcnoCYwCsNVFthDQC7OXCEHLs7zl1rv= Jyly7au0cLC9QuzvZs$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38960007 37849968 37059864 37309623 38059512 38659396 39599374 39939495 39909751 39419777 39159795 39039915 38960007=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .