Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 15:36:11

AWUS01 KWNH 141536
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-141904-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0725
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1135 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141534Z - 141904Z

Summary...A long lived MCV continues to drive training showers and
thunderstorms with 1.5-3"/hr rates across portions of the FL
Panhandle. Additional training activity is expected into the
afternoon, which will maintain a threat of flash flooding (some
significant).

Discussion...Radar imagery depicts a focused area of training
thunderstorms along the western flank of an MCV atop the FL
Panhandle. Within the main training axis southwest of of KEVX,
significant rainfall has fallen over the last 6 hours with an 8.3"
observation at Santa Rosa Beach (which matches MRMS Q3 6 hour
estimates). This activity has since propagated slightly to the
west, but currently contains rainfall rates around 2-2.25"/hr.=20

The mesoscale environment in the vicinity of the MCV is very
conducive for continued efficient warm rainfall, characterized by
deep saturated vertical profiles containing 2.5" PWATS, warm cloud
layers of 4500 meters, and negligible CIN with 1500-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE. RAP forecasts depict 5 kt Corfidi vectors oriented normal
to the mean flow (10 kts) and a north-south instability gradient
which suggest a very slow net westward propagation of the activity
to lengthen residence times of very heavy rainfall as additional
activity develops upstream to the north and west into this
afternoon. Recent runs of the HRRR corroborate this idea, and
suggest an additional 2-3" of rainfall is possible within the
training axis, on top of what has already fallen. This is likely
expected to continue a threat of additional flash flooding (some
of which could be significant), especially atop more vulnerable
urban areas and areas currently experiencing heavy rainfall.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5M6V2Rrcz4g3DeHgddCU72KvOWSroDk2YSXUfY3uA83A-7UzBNzH5kbihTWvPVywUve4=
2NwfUX6kLCaE_3xZn5566lA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31108691 30978588 30728530 29928501 29698545=20
            30248615 30308745 30978765=20

=3D =3D =3D
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