Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1541
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 15:19:11

ACUS11 KWNS 141519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141518=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-141645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern NE and northern KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...

Valid 141518Z - 141645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/damaging winds should become an increasing concern
as thunderstorms move southeastward this morning. Some risk for
large hail will also exist.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms with embedded
supercell structures has produced several reports of large hail up
to 1.75 inches in diameter across southwestern/central NE over the
past couple of hours. This convection is about to reach greater
low-level moisture and MLCAPE along/south of a weak surface boundary
draped near the NE/KS border. Current expectations are for these
thunderstorms to gradually grow upscale into an MCS over the next
couple of hours as they spread southeastward along an instability
gradient. Scattered severe/damaging winds should become the primary
severe threat across south-central NE and north-central KS this
morning as this mode transition occurs. But, recent radar imagery
still shows a robust supercell on the southwest flank of the
cluster, which will likely remain capable of producing large hail in
the short term.

...Gleason.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8p63mbPshYuxq0vbeCG_H97HQRWTfsbWBydWBwOO5cZKW8tuoQFvYWd1BtyGaJgn_WLKunLId=
mZRoo4ZK-pRxi9kNAo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40600098 40880030 41119959 40719834 40259796 39309829
            39189971 39380044 40280098 40600098=20


=3D =3D =3D
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