Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 14:39:43

AWUS01 KWNH 141439
FFGMPD
NCZ000-141808-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0724
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1039 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Southeast North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 141438Z - 141808Z

Summary...Very efficient showers and thunderstorms with 2-4"/hr
rainfall rates continue this morning southeast of RAX. Upstream
development and training of efficient storms along a convergence
axis will continue a flash flood threat through the next several
hours.

Discussion...Recent radar imagery highlights a very efficient
cluster of thunderstorms along the southern end of a decaying
complex which moved across central North Carolina earlier this
morning. Recent estimates from KRAX and MRMS Q3 show very heavy
rainfall rates of 3-4"/hr alongside reduced forward speeds ~ 10
kts where a series of storm mergers occurred south of Benson, NC.
Additional development of new showers and thunderstorms was noted
upstream feeding into the area of intense rainfall, which prompted
an earlier Flash Flood Warning.

As suggested by the intense rates, the environment is very
conducive for efficient warm rain production. Recent RAP and
objective analysis estimates depict warm cloud layers around 4300
meters, PWATS of 2.3", and saturated vertical profiles with
1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE (which is corroborated by the upstream 12z
GSO sounding). 20-25 kts of effective bulk shear will also support
modest storm organization, longevity, and dynamic ascent within
the column.

Over the next several hours, activity is expected to develop
upstream along the axis of surface convergence which is aligned
along the instability gradient. This suggests continued training
of activity within the west to east mean flow which will support a
continued flash flood threat going into the early afternoon.
Recent runs of the HRRR have latched onto the convection, and
suggest localized rainfall totals upwards of 3-4" are possible
where this very efficient convection trains and lingers.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6RvlTfLO2PiHh2kPwrjOo9KT01QBUnyi8qM5oIw0fygwG0s-a2V09d9OFojSyf44vpAj=
D1T0mue-cXkIRR73kO_K4Uw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35657807 35397764 34847782 34767912 35057934=20
            35467889=20

=3D =3D =3D
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