Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1539
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 12:55:39

ACUS11 KWNS 141255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141255=20
NEZ000-141500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1539
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...parts of west central into southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141255Z - 141500Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A southeastward spreading cluster of thunderstorms may
begin to intensify more rapidly and become better organized as early
as 11 AM-Noon CDT, as it approaches the central Nebraska/Kansas
state border vicinity.  As this occurs, it may be accompanied by
increasing risk for strong surface gusts.

DISCUSSION...A recent increase in thunderstorm development to the
east through south of Mullen NE appears rooted within forcing for
ascent due to warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer.  This appears
to accompany a subtle mid-level perturbation within moderately
strong, broadly cyclonic west-northwesterly mid-level flow, which
will continue to dig across central Nebraska, toward the lower
Missouri Valley, through midday.

Of particular note, moistening within the elevated southeasterly to
southerly updraft inflow layer is contributing to increasing CAPE.=20
And boundary-layer destabilization, along and south of a developing
zone of strengthening differential surface heating across
southwestern Nebraska and western Kansas through the central
Nebraska/Kansas border area, appears likely to include CAPE
increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg by midday.

Although the warm advection forcing for ascent may weaken by mid to
late morning, southeastward advecting convection may be maintained
long enough to encounter increasing inflow of the buoyant
boundary-layer air mass.  As this occurs, more rapid intensification
of thunderstorms may ensue, with strong deep-layer shear
contributing to a better organized, upscale growing cluster with
increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts.

...Kerr/Hart.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9RN0DXqkB0zYZGXq1fnu4liwrDGrynUBTKQzCK8iPmGD6NADVgeXV1nJ8AUBvrwq2it-GZLxI=
FdCpUJC9NQwG8Y48v8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41550078 41859988 41359810 40679800 40099921 40070000
            40690094 41270165 41550078=20


=3D =3D =3D
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