Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 09:46:10

AWUS01 KWNH 140946
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-141400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0723
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
545 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Western AR...Far Eastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140940Z - 141400Z

Summary...Hourly totals of 2-3" (with as much as 1.5" in 15-min)
to continue over the next 2-3 hours. Additional localized
instances of flash flooding are likely.

Discussion...A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is maturing
across portions of eastern AR and far western OK early this
morning, providing forcing for further longevity via the cold pool
(in an otherwise weakly forced environment). The parameter space
immediately ahead of the south-southeastward propagating MCS is
characterized by ample instability (SB CAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg),
precipitable water values of 1.9-2.3 inches (between the 90th
percentile and max moving average, per LZK sounding climatology),
and moisture transport via a (likely peaking) 30 kt low-level jet
(LLJ). While MCS maintenance probabilities (via the EMC RAP) have
decreased to about 20-30%, the forcing of the maturing cold pool
should still provide at least another couple hours of impressive
rainfall rates where the leading edge of the bow echo traverses.
In fact, MRMS over the past hour has indicated 2-3" totals in
association with the bow echo itself, but more impressively 15-min
accumulations have been pushing as high as 1.5". Expect this to
continue downstream of the propagating MCS, where 1-hr FFG is as
low as 2". This should allow for additional localized instances of
flash flooding, until the LLJ sufficiently weakens and veers
(eventually marking the end of the MCS). Only the most recent HRRR
run (08z) has caught on to the appropriate track of the SSE
propagation, but the 00z HREF probability matched mean QPF depicts
a similar picture (which seems to be largely due to the influence
of the ARW2 member).

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!789IaU3LrCI2PIZwY-rdIHS_H6J1n8slLRV6to0DDAMFishvsfMKfCv_JsE5VcGSnWfZ=
FGp5D-hUgwyLz7BZndGE27k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36539503 36499446 36479354 36209331 35209279=20
            33869295 33529470 33879524 35019494 35849522=20
            36419551=20

=3D =3D =3D
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