Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 08:55:40

ACUS48 KWNS 140855
SWOD48
SPC AC 140853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to build into the Rockies on
Monday, as an upper-level trough moves through the Great Lakes
region. A moist airmass will be located from the southern and
central Plains eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley.
Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this airmass
by afternoon. The greatest chance for severe would be in the central
Plains, where a pocket of moderate to strong instability is
forecast. However, rising heights will likely contribute to a
capping inversion. A strong cap would make thunderstorm development
more likely at night, which adds uncertainty for Monday's day-time
scenario.

From Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move
eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, as a
shortwave trough develops in its wake. Ahead of the trough on
Tuesday, thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the northern
Plains, where an isolated severe threat could develop. A marginal
severe threat will also be possible in parts of the Northeast on
Tuesday within a moist airmass ahead of a cold front. On Wednesday,
a potential for strong thunderstorms may continue across parts of
the north-central states as the upper-level trough moves eastward.
However, the trough appears to be out of phase with a warm sector
that is much further southeast, which introduces considerable
spatial uncertainty.

....Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8...
On Thursday and Friday, an upper-level troughing pattern is forecast
to develop in the Great Lakes region. A moist and unstable airmass
is forecast in parts of the Ohio Valley on Thursday. The moist
airmass is forecast to shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic on
Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as
instability increases each afternoon. Although an isolated severe
threat will be possible in areas that warm the most, predictability
remains low concerning any potential scenario.

...Broyles.. 07/14/2023

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