Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 07:17:41

ACUS03 KWNS 140717
SWODY3
SPC AC 140716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible on Sunday from parts of the central Plains into the mid
Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the Northeast.

....Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Northwest cyclonic mid-level flow will be in place across the
central U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southward across the central Plains, with surface dewpoints
to the south of the front mostly in the 55 to 60 F range. A pocket
of moderate instability may develop along and near an east-to-west
moist axis by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to form near
the front during the early afternoon, with convection moving
southeastward into the stronger instability in the late afternoon.
The instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep
lapse rates should support an isolated severe threat. Marginally
severe wind gusts and hail are forecast to be the primary threats.
If later runs suggest that the quality of moisture and instability
will be more favorable, an upgrade to slight risk could be needed.

....Northeast...
Southwest mid-level flow will be located in the Northeast on Sunday.
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move into eastern New
York and western New England during the afternoon. As surface
temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints
ahead of the front are forecast to be around 70 F. As instability
develops across the moist airmass, southwesterly mid-level winds in
the 20 to 30 knot range could aide a potential for damaging wind
gusts, primarily with multicell line segments. However, instability
is forecast to be sub-par for a greater severe threat.

...Broyles.. 07/14/2023

$$

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