Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 05:10:06

AWUS01 KWNH 140510
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-140805-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0721
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
109 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern PA...northern
NJ...southern NY...western CT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140505Z - 140805Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding likely to continue for a few
more hours, driven by training bands of thunderstorms with 1-2"/hr
rainfall rates. A significant instance or two of flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...Highly efficient bands of showers and thunderstorms
are proving to be rather persistent late tonight across portions
of western PA, northern NJ, southern NY, and western CT. These
storms have been capable of 1-2"/hr rates, and the training nature
of these bands are leading to increased concerns for continued
flash flooding over the next few hours. The mesoscale enviornment
is characterized by ML CAPE of 750-1250 J/kg, precipitable water
values of 1.4-1.7 inches (between the 75th and 90th percentile,
per OKX sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 30-40
kts. A shortwave trough just upstream (traversing western PA) may
provide additional DPVA and diffluence aloft via the
right-entrance region of a 90 kt jet streak (250 mb), despite the
00z HREF insistence that convection should be disipatting by now.
Increasing convective inhibition and overturning of the atmosphere
should result in the eventual dissipation of convection by 08z or
so, but not before an additional 2-4" of rainfall over or near
areas that have already seen 1-3" of rainfall over the past 3
hours. For this reason, additional localized instances of flash
flooding are considered likely, and a significant instance or two
of flash flooding are possible.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9VATKauZp189u_Lf45ihTsuoBGTYgulL7qaE9i26UpJ-yRpC_CXJYvLYW3Gee0rXc0rC=
l4klazX8QaV41C1m-A7eMDs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41997360 41597301 40977354 40857480 40967592=20
            41427626 41817500=20

=3D =3D =3D
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