Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1538
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 03:54:08

ACUS11 KWNS 140354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140353=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-140530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1538
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Northeast NM into the western OK/TX Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485...

Valid 140353Z - 140530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for large hail and localized severe gusts may
persist for another 1-2 hours. WW 485 has been extended to 06 UTC.

DISCUSSION...Long-lived supercells continue to move southward across
extreme northeast NM into the western TX/OK Panhandles as of 0345
UTC. Modest weakening has been noted with a few of the supercells
over the last 30-60 minutes, and this trend will likely continue as
MLCINH continues to increase with time. However, with favorable
instability and deep-layer shear and the presence of multiple
long-lived supercell structures, some threat for large hail and
localized severe gusts may persist for another 1-2 hours before
MLCINH becomes too prohibitive and/or storms move out of the more
favorable instability axis. With this potential in mind, WW 485 has
been extended in time and is now scheduled to expire at 06 UTC.

...Dean.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!62ckIQVrFUbiyLsc3R2GQdXuOMh8v-XRG7AKJXorOCQRM5xS9gjCNpwlPI8gniQznkgl15tD0=
Kb4CVHxDYtD5UPemxk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36830490 36890352 36240148 35550181 35380249 35350279
            35440314 35950386 36300502 36830490=20


=3D =3D =3D
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