Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1535
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 01:16:33

ACUS11 KWNS 140116
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140116=20
NEZ000-140245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western into central NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

Valid 140116Z - 140245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and localized severe gusts may spread
east of WW 484, but downstream watch issuance currently appears
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing at 01 UTC across
western NE, within an environment characterized by MLCAPE in excess
of 1500 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt. However, convective mode
has become rather messy, and storms have struggled to maintain
severe intensity over the last hour or so. Given the favorable
environment, some threat for isolated hail and/or severe gusts may
continue in the short term, though with nocturnal cooling and
increasing MLCINH (which is already rather large on the 00Z LBF
sounding), a gradual weakening trend is expected with time.=20

Some severe threat may spread east of WW 484, but unless there is an
uptick in storm organization and intensity, downstream watch
issuance appears unlikely at this time. Elevated convection could
redevelop later tonight over portions of western NE with a localized
severe threat, though this may remain isolated and largely occur
after the 03 UTC expiration time of WW 484.

...Dean/Guyer.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5Bp7hDA_bRWrm9v4D1YyEk_uoaXZqRj9RqBGfoSCsIPlF5mycrxf09JnvvswDfdQ-MnUcob9D=
TH0JL-yvxqZrwtHFRI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41260191 42510042 42669930 42109871 41439869 40969910
            40649978 40290156 40720198 41260191=20


=3D =3D =3D
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