Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 00:21:02

AWUS01 KWNH 140020
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-140619-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0719
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
820 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Southern West Virginia and Southwest through
Central Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140019Z - 140619Z

Summary...Repeating thunderstorms continue shifting east this
evening with further risk for hourly rainfall around 2" and
localized flash flooding.

Discussion...An east-west axis of heavy thunderstorms continues to
push east across southern WV through central VA this evening.=20
Increasing SWly low level flow overnight will reinforce this
activity with Gulf-sourced moisture and maintain development that
should generally sag south into the pool of MUCAPE around 2000
J/kg.

A continued risk for 2"/hr rainfall exists with this activity and
the repeating nature should allow for further instances of 4"
localized maxima. Generally dry antecedent conditions led to
higher FFG, particularly over SW VA and as such, further flash
flooding is expected to remain localized.

The eastward extend of this activity should continue to be
generally limited to west of I-95 due to downsloping effects in
the deep layer westerly flow. The southward progression will need
continued monitoring with possible MPDs necessary into NC later
tonight.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7WZbmXVkgUQ0QKwgRqrFwICwu5q0dhnzaaMUji-wLNdZGlxYCXJpG3jj4G7oTwuZ6UQT=
oW8PXVba3QvKrcBlt-JcMJ0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...JKL...LWX...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38478167 38198051 38077953 37957898 37807827=20
            37517800 37067807 36717838 36737991 36798119=20
            37118211 38238220=20

=3D =3D =3D
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