Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1534
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jul 14 2023 00:17:33

ACUS11 KWNS 140017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140017=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-SDZ000-140145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Central/southern MN into far northern IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488...

Valid 140017Z - 140145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 488
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail/wind continues across WW 488,
and may spread east/southeast of the watch with time. Local
expansion of the watch may be considered, but the need for new
downstream watch issuance remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...At 0015 UTC, several supercells are ongoing across
central/southern MN, with a few isolated reports of golf ball to
baseball size hail noted with the strongest storms. Low-level
moisture remains modest at best across all but southwest MN, but
midlevel lapse rates are sufficiently steep for MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Unidirectional westerly wind profiles with effective shear of
30-40 kt will remain supportive of splitting supercells this
evening, with a continued threat of large hail and localized
damaging winds.=20

An eventual weakening trend is expected as nocturnal
cooling/stabilization commences across the region, and outflow
emanating from an earlier storm cluster across IA stabilizes part of
southeast MN. However, some severe threat may spread east/southeast
out of WW 488. Local watch expansion may be considered depending on
convective trends, but the need for new downstream watch issuance is
uncertain at this time.

...Dean/Guyer.. 07/14/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7uM10H5L6NHBb5ROJk78shtp3Ddq-k9IOjm5HHLHzbWngNgkin78d2ofQ6b5gZAJNrPC68Ip0=
nIjJ5rBVWpnMmNyz8Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   43799690 45799572 46489527 46199385 45599301 43809239
            43359240 43089384 42719570 43799690=20


=3D =3D =3D
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