Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 23:45:33

AWUS01 KWNH 132345
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-140400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0718
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado and Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 132342Z - 140400Z

Summary...Heavy supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop
and merge/cross paths this evening over southeast Colorado and the
OK Panhandle.

Discussion...Strong shear and instability led to supercell
development this afternoon over southeast CO. These cells have
split, merged, and are now drifting south which will result in
crossing tracks and enhanced rainfall. Easterly low level 15kt
flow will veer SWly this evening and increase to 20 to 25kt,
reinforcing western Gulf-sourced moisture into the region and
promoting heavy rainfall.

Much of this area has seen above normal rainfall over the past
week which brings 1hr FFG down around 1.5". Recent hourly rainfall
estimates from KPUX are generally 1 to 1.5".

While there is a major severe threat with this activity, the risk
of repeating activity and backbuilding brings a notable flash
flood threat. Flash flooding is considered likely through this
evening.

Either this or later activity is expected to congeal/organize and
shift east in the mean flow over the Plains overnight. Subsequent
MPDs may be necessary over these southern High Plains.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_d9D5oDJgD4o-7AvgBYDoqPpCucD44U19Bf8H492n8kb30OgY00kC4FzSt2FNQ6R9Owg=
SCqjNCPFW1jpZUrFwVMkWx4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38530392 38230297 38290203 37970136 37390115=20
            37040107 36510121 36460157 36430209 36410342=20
            37320367 37870401 38270458 38420458=20

=3D =3D =3D
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