Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 23:13:35

AWUS01 KWNH 132313
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-140411-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0717
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
712 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Interior New England and Lower Hudson Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 132311Z - 140411Z

Summary...Risk of repeating thunderstorms pose a flash flood risk
with localized rain rates up to 2"/hr and totals of 3" possible,
from southern VT through the lower Hudson Valley.

Discussion...Line of thunderstorms that has pushed across NY this
afternoon continues to tilt more to a SW to NE orientation (which
is more parallel to the deep layer mean flow) as it reaches New
England and shifts south from the Catskills through the lower
Hudson Valley. Heavy discrete thunderstorms continue to develop
ahead of the line, increasing the risk for repeating heavy rain.=20

Ample instability with MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg and moisture with PW
continuing to rise over 1.7" and may yet reach 2" this evening
over areas such as the lower Hudson Valley will allow continued
development well into this evening. There is a risk for rainfall
through 04Z to locally exceed 3".

Sensitive antecedent conditions are across eastern New York,
Vermont, and western Massachusetts. The lower FFG and higher soil
moisture will result in greater runoff and could lead to higher
impact flash flooding, especially the more impacted and vulnerable
locations from recent heavy rainfall events.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6dMuBmZLW3vtd6qQYqrlj-gvh_WW7dLm3jDnT8Pz4GLCZkwGZ3TAfJBoBXEK1v6p9muX=
Z0YhdB8de5Is19EtXmytVTA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...GYX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44297212 43867175 42927185 42577196 41967232=20
            41467328 41277409 41307491 41707589 42157503=20
            42547429 43027367 43487325 43897300 44127291=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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