Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1530
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 22:22:46

ACUS11 KWNS 132222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132222=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Southeast CO into extreme southwest KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 487...

Valid 132222Z - 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 487 continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of very large hail and a couple of
tornadoes will likely continue into the early evening.

DISCUSSION...Intense supercells are ongoing late this afternoon
across southeast CO to near the CO/KS border. These supercells are
being supported by anomalous low-level moisture (with dewpoints near
70 F), MLCAPE of 2000-3500 J/kg, and effective shear of 50+ kt, and
maintenance of these cells is generally expected as they move
southward into early evening. Additional development in the wake of
the initial cells will also be possible, as low-level moisture
advection continues into the higher terrain.=20

Generally long and straight hodographs will continue to support the
potential for very large hail. Low-level shear is not particularly
strong, but may be sufficient to support the potential for a couple
tornadoes, given the magnitude of low-level moisture and instability
across the region. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible.

...Dean.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_ksyywSGxI7OyQuulXTCSgCfp1as7Jrmlz9uSE2xILcgyc27q_K12w4z-sN9Vgmg67Ymva6uG=
fWygymfis89mLLMvps$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   38490400 38550217 38320173 37890175 37510171 37250180
            37020208 36970283 37090393 37730420 38490400=20


=3D =3D =3D
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